Saturday, June 20, 2009

Box Office Preview: 'The Proposal' and 'Year One' aim to take down 'The Hangover'


The R-rated comedy The Hangover has been the surprise No. 1 movie for the past two weekends -- but will its reign come to an end this time around? Maybe. Two more comedies (The Proposal and Year One) enter the multiplex, but neither seems like a sure winner. In other words, it'll be yet another closely fought box office battle.

1. The Proposal -- $24 millionIn this rom-com, Sandra Bullock and EW cover hunk Ryan Reynolds play coworkers who decide to marry to avoid her deportation to Canada. Despite multiple attempts, Reynolds has yet to break out as a box office force, and Bullock, though still an undeniably big star, has never had a movie open north of Premonition's $17.6 mil two years ago. In fact, she hasn't made a movie since then. So while this seems to be the biggest film of the weekend and the buzz is good, a $24 mil gross would have to be considered a sizable

2. The Hangover -- $23 millionA threepeat is very, very possible.

3. Up -- $22 millionWith $195 mil in the bank already, the animated film will surely break the $200 mil mark, like, today, and it's well on pace to be one of Pixar's biggest earners ever. Oh, and it, too, could wind up winning the weekend.

4. Year One -- $16 millionHow can you go wrong with stars Jack Black and Michael Cera (who play two prehistoric dudes), director Harold Ramis, and producer Judd Apatow? Then again, Year One appears to be the exact kind of young-skewing, middle-playing funny flick that big hit The Hangover really isn't (and flop Land of the Lost kinda was). Which has me nervous about its prospects.

5. The Taking of Pelham 123 -- $14 millionThat $23.4 mil debut was nice enough (if perhaps a tad disappointing), and the John Travolta-Denzel Washington thriller stands to benefit from being the only major non-comedy in the marketplace this weekend.